![]() Today, the error at Day 3 is closer to 3.5 degrees. Then again, sometimes we see very low predictability on a given day or weather event, and this can sometimes remain very low, even as we near the day, which is why there are days in New England weather that may be as much as ten or, very rarely, even fifteen degrees off our forecast for the next day! The key to finding the right length of forecast period is to examine average error of the forecast, rather than the exceptionally good or bad forecasts.īack in the 1970s, a three day forecast saw a 6 to 6.5 degree error. Just how accurate can you expect the ten day forecast to be? If you watch NECN often, or read my online posts, you know that one of the big things I look at regularly is "predictability" - that is, how much agreement on a particular forecast solution is there? Sometimes, we see excellent predictability from far in advance - I've made plenty of forecasts from two weeks out that have verified. ![]() ![]() Of course, we're all aware that a ten day forecast should be viewed as guidance, not gospel - there will be changes needed, just like there always have been to forecasts. This new venture into nightly ten day forecasting has grown from that Week Two forecast, and the overwhelming strong, positive response garnered from offering that extended prediction. Some of you have undoutbedly seen my 8 to 14 day forecast on Monday night's News at 9 on NECN - that "Week Two" forecast has featured the overall weather pattern for the long-range, and has been a regular Monday night feature for nearly a year. I'm excited to offer this forecast for the first time in New England weather, including the Boston television viewing area, and I hope the new extended forecast will help everyone at home to better plan ahead. Announced in our special weather program at 8 PM on Monday, April 22, "Project Weather: Spring," I'll now be offering an exclusive, nightly TEN DAY forecast on New England's Only News at 9 PM, Monday through Friday nights in our NECN Weather broadcasts. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |